The Daily Parker

Yes, one more entry of nothing but links, as my creativity is completely directed at the three five work projects currently on my agenda. But tomorrow afternoon I start a mini-vacation that will include a good, solid 22 hours of being in planes and trains, which I actually find relaxing. (I am not kidding.)

For now, here's what I'm saving to my Kindle reader:

• The President is having an election-night (victory!) rally at McCormick Place; I will try to attend.
• Newsweek will cease print publication with its December 31st issue, leaving Time the only remaining news weekly in the U.S. This isn't as grave as it sounds; I read the Economist on my tablet now, but it's still great to pick one up overseas and see the differences. Do enough of Newsweek's readers read online now? Is Newsweek still relevant anyway?
• The Cranky Flier reposted his Concorde trip report from 2002, making me jealous. I hope we get supersonic travel back someday. Leaving London at 10:30am and arriving at JFK at 9:15am sounds like a great way to spend a morning. I remember, at Hofstra, most mornings you could watch the Concorde flying overhead on its approach to JFK.
• Target Stores is to break ground at the old Cabrini-Green site today. Here's the place just 18 months ago.
• The rest of my Kindle reading includes such page-turners as Programming ASP.NET MVC 4, Cloud Architecture Patterns, and—no kidding—The Godfather. I suppose I should download The Immortal Life of Henrietta Lacks as there may be a quiz on Saturday. (Long story.)

Finally, as much as I love crisp, cool autumn weather, I do not like the sun rising after 7. I've learned to turn on a bunch of lights as soon as I get up to fool my diurnal, reptilian brain that it's daytime. And now I must get more caffeine.

A quorum:

• With tonight's debate at my alma mater, Hofstra, everyone needs to hear this again.
• The BBC reports that creativity is linked to mental illness. Or, put differently, people who lack creativity have no other way of explaining it.
• Five Thirty Eight has an interactive graphic showing how state-level politics has shifted since WWII.
• Discover interviews physicist Geoffrey West about urban planning.
• The New Republic thinks Ben Affleck's Argo is brilliant.
• The Economist's Gulliver blog examines Qatar Airlines' accession to oneworld.

All for now.

Yes, more links:

• Qatar Airways has joined the oneworld alliance. The Economist's Gulliver blog has the story; Cranky Flier had analysis yesterday.
• Fun and games for the election with an endorsement of Mitt Romney that is either subtle satire or true hathos, and bad lip reading of the debate.
• Russia goes back and forth about daylight saving time, to the confusion of all.

Later today I'll also have a new post on the 10th Magnitude blog.

I haven't any time to write today, but I did want to call attention to these:

• Parker is fine, though it appears likely he pulled a hind leg muscle on Sunday. He spent much of Sunday crying and really, really hating the stairs; today he was able to stand up and grab a treat from my hand. Tomorrow he'll get a 3 km walk in the morning.
• Alex Brown, my boss, has a new blog entry up.
• The Smithsonian wrote about a CIA burglar who went rogue.
• Reuters' Felix Simon argues against high-frequency trading.
• Andrew Sullivan is freaking out about the President's debate performance. Twice.
• Both Chicago newspapers have endorsed Tammy Duckworth in the 8th district U.S. House race against right-wing nutter Joe Walsh.

Back to the mines...

Aaron Sorkin, writing for Maureen Dowd's column today, imagines the conversation:

BARTLET And that was quite a display of hard-nosed, fiscal conservatism when he slashed one one-hundredth of 1 percent from the federal budget by canceling “Sesame Street” and “Downton Abbey.” I think we’re halfway home. Mr. President, your prep for the next debate need not consist of anything more than learning to pronounce three words: “Governor, you’re lying.” Let’s replay some of Wednesday night’s more jaw-dropping visits to the Land Where Facts Go to Die. “I don’t have a $5 trillion tax cut. I don’t have a tax cut of a scale you’re talking about.”

OBAMA The Tax Policy Center analysis of your proposal for a 20 percent across-the-board tax cut in all federal income tax rates, eliminating the Alternative Minimum Tax, the estate tax and other reductions, says it would be a $5 trillion tax cut.

BARTLET In other words ...

OBAMA You’re lying, Governor.

Yeah, we really could have used Josiah Bartlet up there Wednesday. But there are three more debates...

The Chicago Transit Authority replaced two viaducts over Evanston, Ill., streets in June, the fifth and sixth of 17 century-old structures. The Daily Parker watched them replace one back in 2006; in 2012, the CTA took video. Here's Greenleaf Street, replaced on June 11th:

And here's Dempster Street, replaced two weeks later:

It's all part of a plan to rehabilitate the Red and Purple lines that may get finished in my lifetime. (The RPM project, one aspect of the plan, is going forward, soonish.) If only there were a massive source of interest-free money available to fund the project, and millions of unemployed people to hire for it. Oh, wait...

Nate Silver finds no consistent bias in the history of presidential polling:

In the 10 presidential elections since 1972, there have been five years (1976, 1980, 1992, 1996 and 2004) in which the national presidential polls overestimated the standing of the Democratic candidate. However, there were also four years (1972, 1984, 1988 and 2000) in which they overestimated the standing of the Republican. Finally, there was 2008, when the average of likely voter polls showed Mr. Obama winning by 7.3 percentage points, his exact margin of victory over John McCain, to the decimal place.

In all but three years, the partisan bias in the polls was small, with the polling average coming within 1.5 percentage points of the actual result. (I use the term “bias” in a statistical sense, meaning simply that the results tended to miss toward one direction.)

On the whole, it is reasonably impressive how unbiased the polls have been. In both presidential and Senate races, the bias has been less than a full percentage point over the long run, and it has run in opposite directions.

That does not mean the pollsters will necessarily get this particular election right. Years like 1980 suggest that there are sometimes errors in the polls that are much larger than can be explained through sampling error alone. The probability estimates you see attached to the FiveThirtyEight forecasts are based on how the polls have performed historically in practice, and not how well they claim to do in theory.

So in 2012, as Krugman puts it, "the facts have a well-known liberal bias."

As a person with a bachelors degree in history, this compilation of Republican ideas about history made me laugh. And cry:

1500s: The American Revolutionary War begins: “The reason we fought the revolution in the sixteenth century was to get away from that kind of onerous crown.”—Rick Perry

1619-1808: Africans set sail for America in search of freedom: “Other than Native Americans, who were here, all of us have the same story.”—Michele Bachmann

1812: The American War for Independence ends: “ ‘The Star-Spangled Banner’…that song—written during the battle in the War of 1812—commemorates the sacrifice that won our liberty.”—Mitt Romney

Oh, my eyes.

Via writer Daniel Vergara, the Guardian U.K. newspaper posted a quiz on Mitt Romney's gaffes:

Who said:

1. On making the case for greater consumer choice in health insurance: “I like being able to fire people who provide services to me.”

• Mitt Romney
• John McCain

Et cetera. Well, it seems Mitt made a cracking impression on the Brits, what what!

Before I forget, and get lost in my work again today:

• Exelon Energy's power outage SMS notifications actually work. You should sign up.
• Loyola University ethics professor Al Gini wonders why college students cheat.
• WBEZ has yet another 'Chicago has Great Craft Breweries' article that I couldn't resist reading.
• Mitt Romney has the distinction of being the only presidential candidate since before 1988 with net unfavorable ratings in mid-September. Every other candidate, Democratic or Republican, who has run since 1988, had net favorable ratings from voters.

All for now...