As London continues to suffer with perfect weather this weekend, I'm taking a moment to get in from the cool sunny breezes and small cumulus clouds obscuring almost 10% of the sky. Yesterday the temperature soared to an unimaginable 24°C, causing Londoners to seek solace by standing outside pubs in groups drinking lagers. Today things have cooled off to more realistic levels (19°C right now), but the sun continues to make Londoners miserable and wait the restoration of normal weather.
Anyway, I've been meaning to post this map, which shows the U.S. population by race—one dot per person. Here's Chicago:
The yellow area south and west of the Loop are mostly African-Americans; you can see the abrupt change where the Austin neighborhood meets Oak Park on the west side. White people are blue dots, so purple-ish areas are well-integrated, while bluer areas are not.
Other parts of the country have different stories. Play with the map and take a look.
Actually, that's not true. I don't even have one bear. *rimshot*
I've arrived at Heathrow, taking advantage of another benefit from using frequent-flyer miles: the arrivals lounge. Shower, breakfast, tea, checking email. Also my second experience in two days of a government adequately staffing their immigration and customs checkpoints to get us through in just a few minutes. Thank you Canada, thank you UK.
All right: now to London.
Fortunately, I'm in an airport with lots of power outlets. Because my laptop just warned me that it was down to its last few milliamps, even though ordinarily the 90 W/h battery I lug around can last about 8 hours. What happened? Windows Search decided that consuming 50% of my CPU (i.e., two entire cores) was a good idea while running on battery.
So since I have an hour before boarding, and since I'm now plugged in (which means I don't have any worries about driving my portable HDD), here is a lovely picture of Montréal from earlier today:
When I booked this trip, American Airlines insisted (probably because I used miles) that I connect through somewhere, preferably Montréal. They also allowed me to book a 10-hour layover in the city, so, alors, je suis dans un café à la rue St-Antoine. (Click the location bug at the bottom of this post.)
A couple of observations:
- This trundled by just now: a food truck serving what appears to be fish and chips made with fish that was swimming only a few minutes before being cooked. It seems like a great idea.
- On the plane I read an article in the Economist's Intelligent Life supplement about Berlin's Stolpersteine. I now have another reason to visit Germany.
- For only C$9 you can ride all of Montréal's public transit for a day, including an express bus from the airport (cleverly given the route designation 747).
That's it for now. I'm going to wander around France-in-America for a few hours.
I'm just about 18 hours from leaving the country. I'm at that stage where I have nothing to do regarding the trip, but it's close enough to make concentrating on software development a little iffy. It didn't help that my day got broken in half by a regular medical checkup that stretched to unusual lengths because my doctor has a new computer system.
Gotta finish this code, though...
Oh, and: ...ation.
Google Maps now shows a familiar-looking blue box parked in front of the Earls Court tube stop. And you can go inside...
Cool.
Last week the Justice Department and several states, including Texas and Florida, sued to stop the American—US Airways merger. Today a couple of them realized their error:
Political and business officials in Florida, Texas and North Carolina are asking the U.S. to reconsider its suit to block the proposed merger of American Airlines and U.S. Airways, saying the combined company would benefit their local economies.
Florida, Texas and North Carolina...are home to large hubs for both airlines.
American Airlines, which sought Chapter 11 protection in late 2011, is one of the largest private employers in Miami-Dade County. The carrier operates around 70 percent of the flights at the Miami airport, making it a dominant hub for flights to and from Latin America. Local officials have long promoted Miami as the “Gateway to the Americas.”
Yeah, I didn't understand that four of the six states who joined the Justice Department suits (these three plus Arizona) contain four of the five largest hubs of the two airlines—including the airlines' headquarters (American in Texas and US Airways in Arizona).
Even though I thought there would be a challenge to the merger, after I thought about how the challenge actually went down, it didn't make any sense. Obviously the people who depend on American and US Airways for their livelihoods agree.
Two more opinions this morning about the Justice Department sued to block the American-US Airways merger. First, from Cranky Flier:
[I]f DOJ really wanted to settle for slots at National, it would have done so before filing such a strongly-worded, broad case. Now it has sort of pinned itself into a corner. If it settles, it sets precedent that can be used against it in the future. If it goes ahead with trial, it risks everything.
See, if it goes to trial, then the judge will review the case on its merits. And the end result will be binary. Either the DOJ’s complaint is validated (which still seems unlikely at this point, though we don’t know if DOJ has something more substantial hidden somewhere) or it’s shot down. And if it’s shot down, then the new American not only gets to merge, but it gets to keep all its slots at National and everywhere else. That’s quite a risk to take.
Clearly DOJ thinks that it can win this thing or it never would have taken a chance like this. But it’s a huge gamble. Now we just have to wait and see what happens.
The Economist's Gulliver Blog also weighs in about whether deregulation is to blame:
The consolidation of air service at central hub cities is bad news for cities that aren't hubs. But it's great news for the cities that are. It's good for airlines that are saving money by shutting down inefficient routes. If it's encouraging businesses and people to move to more densely populated areas, well, there are numerous economic and environmental benefits to having people live and work closer together. And the loss or decline of network carrier service to some small airports has fuelled the rise of ultra-low-cost carriers at some of those same airports. All of which is to say: the decline of small and medium-size airports is less of an unmitigated disaster and more of a mixed bag than Mr Longman and Ms Khan make it out to be. Returning to a more regulated airline industry would be a huge political lift with countless unintended consequences. It's worth thinking about how deregulation has changed the face of the airline industry. But the troubles of America's smaller airports—and the communities they serve—have roots far deeper than the demise of the Civil Aeronautics Board.
The merger will, of course, cause some more consolidation. The alternative is that we have two giant global airlines and two smaller ones that can't possibly survive much longer.
The judge in the American Airlines bankruptcy just expressed doubts the airline will survive:
A judge asked AMR Corp for guidance on whether he should approve its plan to exit bankruptcy, in light of an antitrust challenge to its planned merger with US Airways Group Inc.
The request suggested Judge Sean Lane would hold off on approving AMR's plan at a hearing in U.S. bankruptcy court in New York on Thursday.
Lane said he had "lingering doubts" as to whether it was appropriate to confirm the plan. He told AMR, its creditors and other parties in the bankruptcy to submit briefs on the issue.
Lane said he had strongly considered canceling Thursday's hearing but decided to give parties an open forum to discuss the antitrust challenge.
Absent the antitrust challenge, Thursday's hearing would have been the final step in AMR's exiting bankruptcy and implementing its merger.
This really sucks, not just for American's shareholders, but also for air travelers in the U.S. The Justice Department believes the merger will hurt air travelers, but Cranky has some good analysis why this isn't so. Plus, the Justice Department has had access to the competition data for years; that makes the timing of their case look suspect, in my mind.
And personally, my biggest beef with all this concerns the bank of frequent flier miles I've built up for many, many years now. If American can't merge with US Airways, all my miles might vanish. (US Airways has promised to honor them if the merger succeeds.) The judge and the Justice Department have made that much likelier this week.
My worst fear is that the bankruptcy proceedings could turn so rapidly there won't be time to cash in any of the miles, or even if I can cash them in, there won't be an airline around to honor the award tickets when I try to use them.
What, on earth, was the Justice Department thinking?
...but the Department of Justice suing to block the American-US Airways merger was sure stupid. Cranky Flyer gives them a Crazy Jackass award:
It really does appear that DOJ has gone off the rails. The best way to sum up the argument is that airlines should all be punished for trying to be successful enterprises. The complaint is filled with talk about how capacity has shrunk and fares have risen. They think this merger will result in more of the same. But what they’ve failed to recognize is that the airline industry of the past was a sickly mess. You had too many cooks in the kitchen and some of them had the cooking skills of a 12-year-old. So airlines pushed in too much capacity just to gain market share, then they had to discount fares and nobody made money. It was a mess.
Apparently the DOJ likes that plan. It’s sad to think this is how the government looks at private industry. If you want to decide that the airline industry is a public utility, then go all-in and fully regulate it. (Fares will rise, but I would respect the argument.) Otherwise, this nanny-state-style semi-regulation will keep the industry from ever becoming truly healthy.
The Economist takes a more sober view, but still doesn't think the suit makes sense:
The DoJ suit mentions the likely loss of US Airways’ low fares, known as Advantage Fares, which undercut those of American, Delta and United on one-stop trips and which have prompted US Airways’ competitors to reduce their prices. The DoJ has been scrutinising the merger since January, a month before it was announced publicly. Last week the European Commission nodded the deal through after a minor concession on slots at London’s Heathrow. But the DoJ said the merger would take consolidation too far, leaving four airlines controlling over 80% of the American market.
Doug Parker, the chief executive of US Airways, still hopes the deal can be completed before the end of the year. If it is not, American will struggle longer to emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy, as it would have to assemble and seek court approval for a new rescue plan. The existing one was relatively generous to creditors and shareholders, leaving the latter with a stake in the merged carrier. If the courts uphold the DoJ’s view, some observers think it will have the effect of intensifying the dominant position of United and Delta, leading to more losses and later pressure for more mergers—an unintended consequence of the DoJ’s stance.
The DoJ has come down firmly on the way to solve the consolidation problem that will result in the worst deal for consumers. Having three giant airlines doesn't end competition, but it does make it easier to circumvent existing competition rules. The DoJ should concentrate on the actual effects of the proposed arrangement, not on its hypothetical effects, especially when their hypotheses don't actually have a lot of evidence supporting them.