Today's Illinois State Climatologist report on June's weather confirmed what we expect from strong El Niño events. Generally, higher East Pacific Ocean sea-surface temperatures set up a cool, wet pattern for the northern part of the US and southern Canada. That's what we got last month:
The preliminary statewide average June temperature was 22.2°C (72.0°F) 0.1°C below the 1991–2020 normal, 0.3°C above the 20th Century average, 0.17°C degrees below the most recent 30-year average and tied for 61st warmest June on record.
The preliminary statewide total June precipitation was 188 mm (7.40 in), 69 mm (2.75 in) above the 1991–2020 normal, 84 mm (3.31 in) above the 20th Century average, 45 mm (1.78 in) above the most recent 30-year average, and the 5th wettest June on record.
Meanwhile, New York is getting absolutely drowned:
The punishing heat wave that made most of last week nearly unbearable across New York is finally over, but a new week is bringing a new weather danger: the potential for torrential rain and flash flooding.
The National Weather Service warned that between late Sunday and early Tuesday, multiple rounds of thunderstorms could unleash enough rain to cause significant flash flooding across the region.
The greatest areas of concern were from northern and coastal New Jersey through southeast New York, including the New York City area, Long Island, southern Connecticut, southern Rhode Island and into parts of southeast Massachusetts.
Storms in this corridor may repeatedly move over the same places, a pattern known as “training,” which can quickly lead to high rainfall. Widespread amounts, of about three to six inches of rain, are possible, with isolated areas potentially seeing eight inches of rainfall or more, the service said.
By the way, the El Niño event 10 years ago was the strongest one ever recorded, just like the current one. Sure enough, the combined precipitation in July and August 2016 was the second-wettest in history and pretty warm, but not record-breaking warm.
The silver lining? Strong El Niño events generally lead to warm, dry autumns, just like we had in 2016. That autumn was followed by the fifth warmest winter and warmest February on record, with no snow for 3 months, the longest such period in my lifetime.
I have long maintained that Chicago will benefit from climate change (though much of the world will not). As El Niño events become stronger, and we get more years like this, it's becoming more obvious.
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