The Daily Parker

Politics, Weather, Photography, and the Dog

Reaction to The Warmest May

My last post ("Warmest May in 131 years") got some reaction on its cross-posting to Facebook:

YK: 131 years is a drop in the ocean in geological time. Why is this drop so significant? Never seen any satisfactory answers to that question except maybe some looks of intimidation about how 'obvious' the answer was. Poor communication or maybe nothing compelling to communicate?

The Daily Parker: The sharp rise in global temperatures over the past 150 years is unprecedented in the planet's history. Yes, the earth has been warmer, and it's been colder—but (a) the evidence is clear that a 2-5°C rise in this short amount of time has never happened before barring asteroid impact or supervolcano eruptions; and (b) there is a statistically significant correlation between human-caused gas emissions and the temperature rise.

YK: What science can go back 4 billion years and offer that level of precision over a 150 year period of time? Sorry, I don't buy it. Show me the evidence.

TDP: That's just it: looking at 150 years over even a few million, the spike would be vertical. There have been large rises in temperature, but over millennia. We've got ice cores going back half a million years, and geological evidence for a few hundred million before that. I think we can exclude from the argument the time when the planet was a molten rock without an atmosphere through the time it had an oxygen-nitrogen atmosphere capable of supporting air-breathing life. So, for the last 500 million years, there have been swings up to 9°C, but never so fast, and never (with the exception of the K-T extinction) so devastating to life. What level of evidence do you require to recognize human-caused climate change, short of palm trees in Saskatchewan?

YK: I don't claim to be an expert in climate change, because I don't believe you can gain that 'knowledge' by reading or hearing people talk about it informally. Here is an example of something I looked for and read to learn more about it. Let me know if you can point me to something as equally well researched that can refute or at least cause me to question the observations and/or conclusions in this.

TDP: OK: UNFCCC, NASA, USGS, National Academies...again, what's the threshhold for you? What level of evidence will be sufficient to convince you?

YK: Read my article. You throw your stuff my way and don't bother to reciprocate the effort. Scientists who don't agree at least look at each other's evidence, and not just promote their own. (I write [that] with confidence because I know you couldn't have read the link I posted in 8 minutes.)

TDP: In fairness, you're right I haven't read it, but I'm downloading it now. While we're digesting each others' documents, consider this: If we shift resources to combatting climate change, for example by moving away from petroleum, reducing energy consumption overall, limiting meat production, etc., we could take a 1-2% GDP hit over the next century. Maybe 3% of GDP. If the consensus is wrong, and we've spent that 3% of GDP, we'll still have better resource use, healthier people, and fewer farting cows—all of which may very well boost GDP.

But if the consensus is right, and we do nothing, then we'll lose Miami, Bangladesh, and (truly a catastrophe) Jones Beach, Long Island.

What do you think about doing a thorough, evidence-driven risk analysis and then acting on it?

YK: If it can be proven or shown as a viable theory that we're f'ing up our planet and that we could do something to improve the situation, of course I'd be all for it. I just don't believe in any 'noble lie' scenario a la Plato. Show me the evidence or a reasoned theory and I'll come to my own conclusion on the matter. But I am against 'forcing' people to act against their will 'for their own good.' I am not a statist or a totalitarian or a believer in tyranny. If the best our 'leaders' can do is point guns at the populace to 'make them do the right thing' then I'm afraid we need to re-evaluate our status as citizens in this country.

My real reaction to the warmest May is: "Man, this May was so much more pleasant than last year in Chicago. Last year's late spring/all summer was the most disappointing in my 10 year experience living here."

The debate continues.

Warmest May in 131 years

Remember all those climate-change deniers going on about snow this past winter? New data from NASA might change some minds:

Especially warm temperatures—close to five degrees Celsius (9 degrees Fahrenheit) above average—occur over most of the Arctic, including the northernmost reaches of North America, northwestern Greenland, and most of the northern coast of Eurasia. Unusually warm conditions also extend southward into Eastern Europe and Siberia. In Antarctica, warm conditions appear in some inland areas and especially over the Antarctic Peninsula.

Temperature anomalies in May continued a much longer trend. GISS compared the January–May mean surface temperature anomalies for 2010 to those of 2005 and 1998 (the two warmest years on record). January–May anomalies show 2010 to be the warmest out of 131 years (2005 is the fourth warmest and 1998 is the fifth warmest). Moreover, Arctic temperature anomalies are especially pronounced, and have been since the turn of the twenty-first century.

And about that snow this winter: "Sea ice retreat and snow melt reduce Earth’s albedo, which can lead to increased warmth and further melting. Scambos explains that, although the Northern Hemisphere experienced significant snowfall in early 2010, spring melt was rapid, exposing land surfaces to sunlight sooner than usual."

"Ring of Fire" over central U.S.

That's what the WGN Weather Blog calls the circle around a dome of hot air stretching from Texas to the Atlantic:

Yesterday this combination brought the second heavy squall line across Chicago that pinned me down at my client offices. The one last Friday had 75 km/h winds that punched out windows at Willis Tower, a few blocks away. Last night's encouraged the city to turn on the civil defense sirens:

The National Weather Service said funnel clouds were spotted in the leading edge of the storms, but there have so far been no confirmed reports of tornado touchdowns. ... Chicago's Office of Emergency Management and Communications activated emergency storm warning sirens at about 6:15 p.m. after a funnel cloud was spotted in the south suburbs, said Will Knight, a spokesman for the agency. Sirens could heard in various parts of the city, including the Loop.

Back when I grew up, the monthly siren tests (first Tuesday of the month at 10am) were tornado drills from February to October. We'd all line up along the wall and cover our heads until the sirens stopped. They still creep me out a little.

Today promises milder temperatures and winds out of the north—a typical cold-front passage. By Sunday, though, temperatures here will creep back into the 30s C and bring more storms.

Hotting up

Chicago hit 32°C yesterday for the first time since August 9th, and barely missed setting records:

By the time Monday evening's rush hour was getting underway, 33°C highs had been logged at both Midway and O'Hare---18°C higher than the peak reading of 14°C a week earlier---a level 10°C above normal. Only 21 of the past 140 years have recorded a temperature of 33°C or higher this early in the warm season underscoring the rare nature of the hot spell. There hasn't been a warmer May temperature in Chicago in the past 4 years. It was hotter here than in perennial hot spots like Phoenix, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami and Orlando.

The forecast for this coming weekend calls for temperatures in the 20°C–22°C range. That still won't help my electricity bill, which will spike a little earlier than usual this year.

I'm not dead (Shanghai residency day 4)

This is the point in the residency when I see how much work I have to do by Saturday afternoon and wonder if I should have taken the bar exam instead.

And as much as I love Chinese and Indian food, I'm ready for a Whole Foods salad about now.

Before resuming my Strategy reading, I'd like to draw the reader's attention to this front-page story in the Shanghai Daily News:

Dense fog affected Shanghai yesterday, blocking dozens of ships and ferry boats and delaying at least 150 flights.

At least 400 ships changed their sailing schedules and the 180 commuter ferries for Chongming Island and on the Huangpu River in the city's suburban areas stopped running in the morning, said the Shanghai Maritime Safety Administration.

Other front-page stories included a test run at the Expo site and the announcement of an official day of mourning tomorrow in remembrance of the Qinghai earthquake victims.

I contrast this with the front page of the New York Times, which included stories about the $3.6bn Goldman Sachs bonus payments, the mislaid iPod prototype, and back in Chicago, the shocking, didn't-see-that-one-coming, whocodanode news that Rahm Emanuel wants to be mayor.

It's a slow news day everywhere, but somehow, the Shanghai paper just didn't feel like a paper. More to think about; possibly a cultural disconnect.

Worst. Pollen. Ever.

It turns out, all that pollen covering my car happened in part because of the really pleasant winter we had in Raleigh this year. Really:

The N.C. Department of Environment and Natural Resources' Air Quality Division measured a sample of air Wednesday that had 3,524 pollen grains per cubic meter at its Raleigh office.

The count normally falls between 1,000 and 1,500 in the spring. The previous peak was on March 27, 2007, when air quality staff over at DENR measured 2,925 pollen grains per cubic meter.

The jump in pollen has made this a stuffy, sneezy, eye-itching spring for pollen-allergic Triangle residents.

Be grateful, however, you're not in Winston-Salem. The pollen count there was measured at 9,632 grains per cubic meter on Tuesday, according to DENR.

Despite the predicted thunderstorms tonight, predicted pollen levels remain "very high" (only because "OMFG" isn't an official pollen level).

Apparently, though, it's worse elsewhere:

As a-pollen as a cheap pun

This greeted me on my return to Raleigh today:

This is from pine pollen, which forecasters predict will be miserable for a couple of weeks. It covers everything, all over, everywhere down here. Another view of my formerly-silver car:

I wish those trees would stop having sex on my car.