The Daily Parker

Politics, Weather, Photography, and the Dog

Navigating by the stars

In February 2022, a US Navy amphibious assault ship—basically, a smallish (250-meter) aircraft carrier—sailed from Pearl Harbor to San Diego without using electronic navigation:

With the approval of the Essex’s commanding officer (CO), Captain Kelly Fletcher, her navigator (coauthor and then–Lieutenant Commander Stanton), and the lead navigation instructor from Surface Warfare Schools Command in Newport, Rhode Island (coauthor Walter O’Donnell), the Essex tested its own proof-of-concept for navigating with a total loss of integrated electronic navigation equipment. Any navigation equipment that used electricity was prohibited, including all GPS sources, the Essex’s electronic Voyage Management System (VMS), and the computer-based celestial navigation software STELLA.

Navy navigators are held to an exacting standard in shiphandling, piloting, seamanship, planning, and ocean sailing. In addition, navigators juggle many administrative tasks, such as department head and senior watch officer duties and preparations for material and administrative inspections. At the same time, The Surface Ship Navigation Department Organization and Regulations Manual (NavDORM) expects that “ships will be prepared to operate in a PNT [position, navigation, and timing] degraded or denied environment.” But a navigator must be always ready and able to do so.

Prior to deployment, Lieutenant Commander Stanton conducted a celestial navigation training series for junior officers and quartermasters of the watch (QMOWs). The series moved from theory to practice, culminating in a hands-on sextant exercise from the Essex’s flying bridge. To ensure the bridge watchstanders could keep a precise and continuous paper plot, Lieutenant Commander Stanton required practice plots during both deployment transoceanic crossings (San Diego to Guam, then Japan to Oahu). The celestial plots, including a continuous plot of dead reckoning positions, were compared directly to GPS, VMS, and STELLA to hone celestial navigation skills while all sensors were still available. For maximum training effect and redundancy, two paper celestial plots were always maintained on the bridge: one by the officer of the deck and the junior officer of the deck, and another by the QMOW.

Twice during the voyage, more than 15 hours elapsed between fixes because of cloud cover. While this length of time may not surprise those who sailed prior to GPS, it is gut-wrenching in today’s Navy after years of easy access to precise, real-time data and communications. Should maintaining a celestial navigation plot become necessary in the future, bridge watch officers and all who rely on their position data will be required to do what has become unnatural at sea—wait.

It's hard to keep fundamentals fresh when modern systems are so much easier. I'd argue that this applies in every kind of art and science. You write more effectively using the fundamental principles of rhetoric and logic; you cook more effectively using fundamental principles of cuisine. (If you don't know what mirepoix is, your sauces and soups won't taste right.)

The Navy knows how fragile global positioning signals can be. The stars don't change on human timescales, though. I hope the Navy makes celestial navigation a required part of navigator training again.

Friday afternoon link roundup

Somehow it's the 3rd day of 2025, and I still don't have my flying car. Or my reliable high-speed  regional trains. Only a few of these stories help:

I'm also spending some time looking over the Gazetteer that underpins Weather Now. In trying to solve one problem, I discovered another problem, which suggests I may need to re-import the whole thing. At the moment it has fewer than 100,000 rows, and the import code upserts (attempts to update before inserting) by default. More details as the situation warrants.

Today in mass stupidity

The Times morning newsletter highlighted a story from Tuesday about yet one more example of people who have come to believe something that is not only crashingly stupid, but potentially fatal:

[A] small number of spring water aficionados...believe untreated water, or “raw water,” contains enriching minerals that are removed from tap water during the purification process.

The trend, however, alarms health experts, who say that spring water devotees are taking unnecessary risks. The country’s robust water treatment system, they emphasize, eliminates potentially deadly bacteria and parasites, and removes toxins that can cause cancer or harm children’s brain development.

Nonetheless, untreated water enthusiasts across the nation study crowdsourced spring maps and leave online comments as if they are reviewing the latest restaurants. At Red Rock Spring near Stinson Beach, Calif., the wait can be as long as 40 minutes, but the patrons are said to be friendly and the views spectacular, according to Google reviews.

Randy Dahlgren, a professor at the University of California, Davis, who studies watersheds, said that compared with other natural water sources, springs tended to be safer to drink from since they originated deep in the ground and the water was naturally filtered through layers of soil that could remove microbial pathogens. Fresh spring water can contain calcium, magnesium and other beneficial nutrients, and may not contain microplastics or “forever chemicals” as some tap water does, he said.

ut raw water can also be tainted with pesticides from nearby farms, contain arsenic that naturally occurs in soil, and harbor bacteria such as E. coli and salmonella that can make people extremely sick. In 2022, 19 people in Montana became ill, including one who was hospitalized, after drinking from what they thought was a spring but was actually creek drainage.

The reporter spent some time at Red Rock Spring. Basically, water dribbles out of a pair of copper pipes jammed into a cliff face by the road. No one can say with any certainty (a) where the water comes from, (b) what it contains, or (c) who put the pipes there. And yet these modern-day hippies happily fill carboys with the water and feed it to their children.

Carl Sagan was right: if society neglects teaching people critical-thinking skills, society gets dumber.

Statistics: 2024 in Media

After my general statistics for 2024, here are the books and media I consumed since 2023.

Books

I didn't read as many books in 2024 as in 2023, mainly because they were longer. Any one of the Culture novels is the equivalent of 3 or 4 times The Outsiders, for example. The 30 books I started (and 26 I finished) included:

  • Anne Applebaum, Autocracy, Inc. An excellent handbook for the kakistocratic country we now live in.
  • Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism. I hope this does not become a handbook for the kakistocratic country we now live in. (Still reading this. It's not something one just breezes through.)
  • Iain Banks, Raw Spirit, his hilarious travelogue of Scottish distilleries, plus the Culture novels Excession, Inversions, Look to Windward, Matter, Surface Detail, and The Hydrogen Sonata. I also finally read The Crow Road.
  • Christopher Buehlman, The Daughters' War. Prequel to his previous novel The Black-Tongued Thief.
  • Peter Carey, The Unusual Life of Tristan Smith, which I first read in 2001 and wanted to read again.
  • Cory Doctorow, The Lost Cause. Imagine what the world will look like when today's alt-right go to nursing homes and the yet-to-be-born generation has to take care of them.
  • David Farley, Modern Software Engineering. Decent recapitulation of stuff I've known for years, but updated.
  • Scott Farris, Almost President, short biographies of the men (it's from 2008) who lost presidential elections and still influenced politics for years after.
  • William Gibson, The Peripheral. Quite different than the TV series, but both were great.
  • Charles King, Every Valley. The history of Händel's Messiah. (Not finished yet.)
  • Greg Lukianoff and Jonathan Haidt, The Coddling of the American Mind. Absolutely essential reading if you want even to try understanding the horribly damaged generation born after 1995.
  • John Scalzi, Fuzzy Nation and Agent to the Stars. I absolutely love Scalzi's writing.
  • John R. Schmidt, Authentic Chicago, a collection of historical vignettes from an authentic Chicago historian.
  • Matthew Skelton, Team Topologies. A quick read that helped me understand how my new boss looks at software team management.
  • Andrew Weir, The Martian. Another one that I have meant to read for a while.

Other Media

In 2024, I watched 24 films, a bit more TV than usual, two concerts, and one comedy show:

  • Films I would recommend: American Sniper (2014), The Beekeeper (2024), Constantine (2005), Dead Men Don't Wear Plaid (1982), Dune Part 2 (2024), Furiosa (2024), The Gentlemen (2019), The Intern (2015), The Martian (2015), The Menu (2022), Sicario (2015), Tomorrowland (2015), and the entire John Wick series (2014 to present).
  • Films you can skip: The Good Shepherd (2006) and Maestro (2023).
  • TV shows: The 100 (first two episodes, 2014), The Bear season 1 (2022), The Boys season 4 (2024), The Decameron (2024), Designated Survivor (2016, first two episodes), Fallout (2024), Ghosts (first season of the UK version, first two episodes of the inferior US version), House of the Dragon (both seasons, 2023-2024), Justified season 1 (2010), KAOS (2024), Killing Eve season 1 (2018), Once Upon a Time season 1 (2011), The Peripheral (2023), Rome season 1 and some of season 2 (2005), Silo season 2 (2024), Slow Horses season 4 (2024), Star Trek: Lower Decks season 5 (2024), Tales from the Apocalypse (2023), Three Body (2024), and The Umbrella Academy season 4 (2024).
  • I saw two live performances at Ravinia Festival: a live orchestra version of The Princess Bride (1987) and the CSO doing Holst's The Planets.
  • I also saw Liz Miele when she visited Chicago, and Wait Wait...Don't Tell Me! in December.

A lot of good things in there, and a couple of dogs. Actually, only one dog, who very much enjoyed all the time I spent on the couch with her.

Two barely-related computer items

Item the first: Weather Now got an update today. Under the hood, it got its annual .NET version refresh (to .NET 9), and some code-quality improvements. But I also added a fun new feature called "Weather Score."  This gives a 0-to-100 point value to each weather report, showing at a glance where the best and worst weather is. A perfect day (by my definition) is 22°C with a 10°C dewpoint, light winds, mostly-clear skies, and no precipitation. The weather at O'Hare right now is not, however, perfect, and only rates a score of 56.

Item the second: The Daily WTF has a really good, long summary of how the Y2K problem actually got solved. It's worth a read:

25 years on, it's really hard to capture the vibe at the close of the 90s. We'll focus on the US, because that's the only region I can speak to first hand. The decade had a "it was the best of times, it was the worst of times," aspect to it. The economy was up, lifted in part by a tech bubble which had yet to pop. The AIDS epidemic was still raging (thanks, in part, to the disastrous policies of the Reagan administration). Crime was down. The Columbine Shooting was hitting the national consciousness, but was only a vague hint of the future of mass shootings (and the past, as mass shootings in the US have never actually been rare). The Soviet Union was at this point long dead and buried, and an eternal hegemony of the US seemed to be the "end of history". On the flip side, Eastern Europe was falling apart and there was war in Kosovo. Napster launches, and anti-globalization protests disrupt cities across the country.

When you add the Y2K bug into the mix, people lost their goddamn minds.

Enjoy both.

Statistics: 2024

Despite getting back to a relative normal in 2023, 2024 seemed to revert back to how things went in 2020—just without the pandemic. Statistically, though, things remained steady, for the most part:

  • I posted 480 times on The Daily Parker, 20 fewer than in 2023 and 17 below the long-term median. January and July had the most posts (48) and April and December the fewest (34). The mean of 40.0 was slightly lower than the long-term mean (41.34), with a standard deviation of 5.12, reflecting a mixed posting history this year.
  • Flights went up slightly, to 17 segments and 25,399 flight miles (up from 13 and 20,541), the most of either since 2018:
  • I visited 3 countries (Germany, the UK, and France) and 5 US states (Washington, North Carolina, Arizona, California, Texas). Total time traveling: 189 hours (up from 156).
  • Cassie got 369 hours of walks (down from 372) and at least that many hours of couch time.
  • Fitness numbers for 2024: 4,776,451 steps and 4,006 km (average: 13,050 per day), up from 4.62m steps and 3,948 km in 2023. Plus, I hit my step goal 343 times (341 in 2023). I also did my second-longest walk ever on October 19th, 43.23 km.
  • Driving went way down. My car logged only 3,812 km (down from 5,009) on 54 L of gasoline (down from 87), averaging 1.4 L/100 km (167 MPG). I last filled up April 8th, and I still have half a tank left. Can I make it a full year without refueling?
  • Total time at work: 1,807 hours at my real job (down from 1,905) and 43 hours on consulting and side projects, including 841 hours in the office (up from 640), plus 114 hours commuting (up from 91). For most of the summer we had 3-days-a-week office hours, but starting in November, that went back to 1 day a week.
  • The Apollo Chorus consumed 225 hours in 2024, with 138 hours rehearsing and performing (cf. 247 hours in 2023).

In all, fairly consistent with previous years, though I do expect a few minor perturbations in 2025: less time in the office, less time on Apollo, and more time walking Cassie.

Why 2K no problem? Because we fixed it

Twenty five years ago this evening, I rang in New Year 2000 in the ops center at ING Barings in midtown Manhattan...and nothing happened.

Since then, people have largely bought into the myth that because nothing happened, the Y2K problem wasn't a real problem. I assure you, it was a real problem, thousands of programmers spent most of the late '90s fixing it.

Remember this when the Unix timestamp problem hits us on 19 January 2038. If my Social Security check that month gets delayed because everyone forgot how much work we did in 1999, I will be very cross. But, as that's only 13 years away, I'll probably be one of the people fixing it. Again.

Jimmy Carter, 1924-2024

The 39th President of the United States died at his home in Plains, Ga., yesterday:

The Carter Center in Atlanta announced his death, which came nearly three months after Mr. Carter, already the longest-living president in American history, became the first former commander in chief to reach the century mark. Mr. Carter went into hospice care 22 months ago, but endured longer than even his family expected.

“To all of the young people in this nation and for anyone in search of what it means to live a life of purpose and meaning — the good life — study Jimmy Carter, a man of principle, faith and humility,” [President] Biden, the first Democratic senator to endorse Mr. Carter’s long-shot 1976 bid for the presidency, said in a statement. “He showed that we are great nation because we are a good people.”

Other than interludes in the White House and the Georgia governor’s mansion, he and his wife, the former first lady Rosalynn Carter, lived in the same simple home in Plains for most of their adult lives and each of them passed away there, Mrs. Carter in November last year.

Carter was by far the most successful former president in history. Paul Krugman reflects on his accomplishments:

The truth is that luck plays a much bigger role in politics than we like to think.

The late 1970s would have been a difficult time for the economy no matter who was president. For one thing, the great productivity boom that doubled U.S. living standards over the generation that followed World War II had sputtered out, for reasons we still don’t fully understand.

On top of all that, persistent inflation before Carter took office — inflation that was in part due to irresponsible policy under Richard Nixon — had made the economy vulnerable to wage-price spirals. Many labor contracts had cost-of-living allowances that caused oil shocks to feed into labor costs; more generally, expectations of future inflation had become unanchored.

Reagan lucked out on his timing. The really bad stuff happened early in his presidency, and things were improving by the time he ran for reelection. Improving, not good — both unemployment and inflation were substantially worse during “morning in America” than they were at the time of the 2024 election. But Reagan benefited from the sense that the worst was over, and his reputation has been, um, inflated by decades of right-wing hagiography.

Luck, then, plays a big role in politics. It hasn’t always favored Republicans. Bill Clinton won thanks to a sluggish recovery that wasn’t obviously Bush the Elder’s fault; I’m not at all sure that Obama would have won if the 2008 financial crisis had been delayed a few months.

I met Carter once, at university. He came to Hofstra's Carter Conference in 1990. I quite literally bumped into him as he came out of the campus library, and his USSS detail allowed me to walk next to him for a good 400 meters before gently moving me aside. He even signed the question I'd prepared for the conference on a 3x5 note card that I still have.

I'm sorry he's gone. He was the kind of person we need right now.