The Daily Parker

Despite getting back to a relative normal in 2023, 2024 seemed to revert back to how things went in 2020—just without the pandemic. Statistically, though, things remained steady, for the most part:

• I posted 480 times on The Daily Parker, 20 fewer than in 2023 and 17 below the long-term median. January and July had the most posts (48) and April and December the fewest (34). The mean of 40.0 was slightly lower than the long-term mean (41.34), with a standard deviation of 5.12, reflecting a mixed posting history this year.
  
• Flights went up slightly, to 17 segments and 25,399 flight miles (up from 13 and 20,541), the most of either since 2018:
  
• I visited 3 countries (Germany, the UK, and France) and 5 US states (Washington, North Carolina, Arizona, California, Texas). Total time traveling: 189 hours (up from 156).
• Cassie got 369 hours of walks (down from 372) and at least that many hours of couch time.
• Fitness numbers for 2024: 4,776,451 steps and 4,006 km (average: 13,050 per day), up from 4.62m steps and 3,948 km in 2023. Plus, I hit my step goal 343 times (341 in 2023). I also did my second-longest walk ever on October 19th, 43.23 km.
• Driving went way down. My car logged only 3,812 km (down from 5,009) on 54 L of gasoline (down from 87), averaging 1.4 L/100 km (167 MPG). I last filled up April 8th, and I still have half a tank left. Can I make it a full year without refueling?
• Total time at work: 1,807 hours at my real job (down from 1,905) and 43 hours on consulting and side projects, including 841 hours in the office (up from 640), plus 114 hours commuting (up from 91). For most of the summer we had 3-days-a-week office hours, but starting in November, that went back to 1 day a week.
• The Apollo Chorus consumed 225 hours in 2024, with 138 hours rehearsing and performing (cf. 247 hours in 2023).

In all, fairly consistent with previous years, though I do expect a few minor perturbations in 2025: less time in the office, less time on Apollo, and more time walking Cassie.

The 39th President of the United States died at his home in Plains, Ga., yesterday:

The Carter Center in Atlanta announced his death, which came nearly three months after Mr. Carter, already the longest-living president in American history, became the first former commander in chief to reach the century mark. Mr. Carter went into hospice care 22 months ago, but endured longer than even his family expected.

“To all of the young people in this nation and for anyone in search of what it means to live a life of purpose and meaning — the good life — study Jimmy Carter, a man of principle, faith and humility,” [President] Biden, the first Democratic senator to endorse Mr. Carter’s long-shot 1976 bid for the presidency, said in a statement. “He showed that we are great nation because we are a good people.”

Other than interludes in the White House and the Georgia governor’s mansion, he and his wife, the former first lady Rosalynn Carter, lived in the same simple home in Plains for most of their adult lives and each of them passed away there, Mrs. Carter in November last year.

Carter was by far the most successful former president in history. Paul Krugman reflects on his accomplishments:

The truth is that luck plays a much bigger role in politics than we like to think.

The late 1970s would have been a difficult time for the economy no matter who was president. For one thing, the great productivity boom that doubled U.S. living standards over the generation that followed World War II had sputtered out, for reasons we still don’t fully understand.

On top of all that, persistent inflation before Carter took office — inflation that was in part due to irresponsible policy under Richard Nixon — had made the economy vulnerable to wage-price spirals. Many labor contracts had cost-of-living allowances that caused oil shocks to feed into labor costs; more generally, expectations of future inflation had become unanchored.

Reagan lucked out on his timing. The really bad stuff happened early in his presidency, and things were improving by the time he ran for reelection. Improving, not good — both unemployment and inflation were substantially worse during “morning in America” than they were at the time of the 2024 election. But Reagan benefited from the sense that the worst was over, and his reputation has been, um, inflated by decades of right-wing hagiography.

Luck, then, plays a big role in politics. It hasn’t always favored Republicans. Bill Clinton won thanks to a sluggish recovery that wasn’t obviously Bush the Elder’s fault; I’m not at all sure that Obama would have won if the 2008 financial crisis had been delayed a few months.

I met Carter once, at university. He came to Hofstra's Carter Conference in 1990. I quite literally bumped into him as he came out of the campus library, and his USSS detail allowed me to walk next to him for a good 400 meters before gently moving me aside. He even signed the question I'd prepared for the conference on a 3x5 note card that I still have.

I'm sorry he's gone. He was the kind of person we need right now.

Because Christmas came on a Wednesday*, and my entire UK-based team have buggered off until Monday in some cases and January 6th in others, I'm off for the long weekend. Tomorrow my Brews & Choos buddy and I will hit three places in Milwaukee, which turns out to be closer to downtown Chicago by train than a few stations on the Union Pacific North and Northwest lines.

Meanwhile, read some of these:

• John Adams had some nuanced and deep thoughts about aristocracy and oligarchy that we should keep in mind as the OAFPOTUS forms his cabinet of billionaires, for billionaires.
• Despite my recurring reminder not to give the OAFPOTUS's verbal flatulence any mind at all, Krugman dismantles the argument that nations gain from conquest in the post-industrial age.
• New research adds weight to the theory that our ancestors were prey, not predators, with implications for understanding how we react to threats.
• Krebs is warning about a new scam that uses Google Forms to convince you that the attack is really an official Google security action.

Enjoy the weekend. I'll have three Brews & Choos Reviews up before the end of the year, plus the 2025 sunrise chart for Chicago.

* That was also The Daily Parker's 9,500th post since the "modern" blog began in November 2005.

The Library of Congress has named Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan and 24 other films to the National Film Registry this week. A quick view of the list tells me I've only seen 5 of them, so I need to start watching more movies.

In other news:

• Former Chicago mayor and outgoing US Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel suggests some ways the Democratic Party can get back in the saddle.
• The Chicago City Council finally passed its 2025 budget, a $17.3 bn mess that only got 27 out of 50 votes, and then only because it doesn't have a property tax increase. And we're still paying for police tort settlements out of the general fund instead of the police pension fund, where they should come from.
• Chicago's Christkindlmarket in Daley Center Plaza has been named "the most overcrowded holiday market in the US," in part because the overflow Christkindlmarket at Wrigley Field got cancelled this year due to a single hockey game next week.

Finally, Illinois could, if it wanted to, redirect $1.5 billion in Federal highway funds to mass-transit projects in the Chicago area under President Biden's 2021 Covid relief plan. Unfortunately, a lot of the state would prefer to build more useless highways, so this probably won't happen.

In a podcast this week, the woman who accused Duke University lacrosse players of gang-raping her in 2006 has admitted the she made it all up:

“I testified falsely against them by saying that they raped me when they didn’t, and that was wrong,” she told interviewer Katerena DePasquale on Nov. 13. “And I betrayed the trust of a lot of other people who believed in me and made up a story that wasn’t true because I wanted validation from people and not from God.”

“And that was wrong.”

The case dominated national news for months. But as the months went by, the case against the lacrosse players unraveled. After the state bar association filed ethics charges against the prosecutor handling the case, Durham County District Attorney Mike Nifong, accusing him of withholding evidence and making inflammatory statements, then-North Carolina Attorney General Roy Cooper took over. Nifong, who resigned, was eventually disbarred and held in criminal contempt for lying to a judge about the case.

Meanwhile, Mangum found herself once again entangled in the criminal justice system. In 2013, she was sentenced to up to 18 years for murdering her boyfriend two years earlier.

The Durham prosecutors absolutely should have taken Magnum's allegations seriously, and initially they did. But when Magnum's story started to fall apart, their emphasis needed to shift from winning a conviction to protecting the rights of the accused. Instead Nifong rode over the men's rights with a steamroller.

The Duke players won millions in settlements from the City of Durham, yet the accusations put them through unbelievable stress and pain for years. Not to mention, false accusations like this put other women at risk of not having their real accusations taken seriously.

My, we've had a busy day:

• President Biden commuted the sentences of 1,500 Federal inmates in the largest single-day clemency in American history. Two of them stole millions in massive frauds against Illinois citizens. Josh Marshall doesn't see much clemency.
• Charles Sykes worries that neither major US political party has a clue how to fix our education systems (plural).
• Legalized sports betting has shifted billions from small punters to large corporations, which is why it was illegal for so long.
• Charles Blow muses about making friends after 50.
• Despite freaking out the usual car-besotted subjects, a plan to extend a protected bike lane in the Chicago suburb of Evanston, Ill., will actually add parking spaces.
• A downtown Chicago office building constructed in 1928 will become 252 apartments under a plan that received City Council approval yesterday.

Finally, paleobiologists have narrowed the range of Neandertal-Sapiens interbreeding down to a period that peaked 47,000 years ago. Cue the jokes, starting with: "Who knew yo mama was that old?"

Two stories I mentioned previously have updates today:

• After a Federal judge in Oregon and a state judge in Washington rejected the Albertsons-Kroger merger, Albertsons has filed suit against Kroger for breach of contract in the failed deal.
• A Federal bankruptcy judge in Houston has rejected the Onion's acquisition of Infowars in the estate dissolution of Alex Jones, citing a lack of transparency in the process.

As long as I've got five minutes before my next meeting, I also want to spike these two for reading later on:

• William Langewische goes deep into the Proud Prophet war game in 1983 that demonstrated the frightening speed that a conventional war in Europe could escalate into total nuclear annihilation.
• A bridge closure in Winnepeg, Man., has allowed the city to redirect some funds to other basic services that it struggles to pay for after years of sprawling infrastructure spending.

Time for my morning stand-up meeting.

First, Andrew Sullivan makes a very good, nuanced point about President Biden pardoning his son:

A consensus of sorts has emerged among historians. Little abuses of power in the Roman system slowly multiplied, as rival factions exploited loopholes, or made minor adjustments, for short-term advantages. And so, for example, the term-limits of consuls — once strictly limited to two years in order to keep power dispersed — were gradually extended after the first breach, which set a precedent for further bigger breaches. An esoteric emergency measure — the provision of a “dictator” to restore order in a crisis for a limited six months — was — surprise! — extended indefinitely under Sulla and then Caesar.

This was always the model for the collapse of liberal democracy in America. Not Weimar, which was a very new republic, buffeted by sanctions and reparations after a calamitous war. Rome, like contemporary America, was well-established in its republican ways, and, after throwing off a monarchy, had practiced them for centuries, before it slid into strongman rule.

And if there were a single constitutional provision that, if abused, could tip the American republic into a post-legal authoritarian system, it would surely be the pardon power.

A pro-active pardon for criminality ordered by the president is, after all, another phrase for the categorical end of the rule of law. It means that a president’s flunkies — or anyone else in presidential favor — can commit any crime in the secure knowledge there will never be punishment. It thereby puts an entire class of people selected by the president effectively above the rule of law. It makes the president a king.

Second, for some reason this story gave me hope and inspiration:

The world’s oldest known wild bird, a 74-year-old Laysan albatross named Wisdom, is expected to welcome another baby chick in the coming months, astonishing scientists who have been tracking her since the Eisenhower administration.

Wisdom laid an egg on Nov. 27 on Midway Atoll, a speck of land in the Pacific Ocean, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service said. Researchers said they were optimistic that it will hatch in about two months, making her a mother for the 30th or so time. Her last chick hatched in 2021.

While albatrosses usually mate for life, they will find new mates to breed with if their partner dies. Dr. Plissner believes Wisdom has outlived at least three mates.

Wisdom has outlived Chandler Robbins, the well-known ornithologist who banded her in 1956. He died in 2017.

Two things immediately occurred to me: (a) we're all better when wisdom outlives romance; and (b) my jokes have laid eggs my whole life, but clearly I have a long way to go.

Finally, if you want to relax this winter, NASA has just the ticket. Enjoy.

Thomas E Kurtz, co-creator of the BASIC programming language, died November 12th at 96:

Dr. Kurtz and John G. Kemeny, then the chairman of Dartmouth’s math department, believed that students would come to depend on computers and benefit from understanding how to use them.

“We had the crazy idea that our students, our undergraduate students, who are not going to be technically employed later on — social sciences and humanities students — should learn how to use the computer,” Dr. Kurtz said in an interview for Dartmouth in 2014. “Completely nutty idea.”

At 4 a.m. on May 1, 1964, in the basement of College Hall on the Dartmouth campus, the time-sharing system and BASIC were put to a test. A professor and a student programmer typed a simple command — “RUN” — into neighboring Teletype terminals and watched as both received the same answer simultaneously. It worked.

I don't have the earliest programs I wrote because nothing survives from the TRS-80 era, when we saved everything to cassette tape (!), nor from the Apple ][+ era because I never converted those files to PC format. But here is a little thing I wrote in October 1987 in the BASICA (Advanced BASIC) language that shipped with MS DOS 3:

5 DEFDBL A-Z
6 PRINT
7 PRINT
10 INPUT "Number to test = ",N#
15 U$="##########"
16 IF N#<10000000# THEN U$="#######"
17 IF N#<1000000! THEN U$="######"
18 IF N#<100000! THEN U$="#####"
19 IF N#<10000 THEN U$="####"
20 N#=INT(N#)
30 TEST#=1
33 WHILE TEST#<=SQR(N#)
36 TEST#=TEST#+1
40 IF N#/TEST# = INT (N#/TEST#) THEN GOSUB 100
50 WEND
55 PRINT
60 PRINT "I found";FACTORS;"factor(s)."
70 IF FACTORS=0 THEN PRINT "The number"N"is prime."
80 PRINT
81 INPUT "Test another (y/n)";A$
82 IF INSTR(A$,"Y") OR INSTR(A$,"y") THEN RUN
90 END
100 FACTORS=FACTORS+1
120 PRINT USING U$;TEST#;
130 PRINT " * ";
140 PRINT USING U$;N#/TEST#
150 RETURN

If you can find a DOS emulator with BASICA, knock yourself out.

The domain name wx-now.com went live on 11 November 1999, 25 years ago today. The earliest known Wayback Machine capture of the old Active Server Pages site was in September 2000; this screen shot from January 2001 looks a bit closer to what it looked like when it went live:

In 2008, Katie Zoellner gave it a facelift that lasted pretty much until March 2022, when I completely overhauled the app, writing an entirely new UI and refactoring about 50% of the internal code.

I still have all the old source code. It's trippy to look at how I wrote 25 years ago. Even trippier that I've had an application running in the wild continuously for that long.