The Daily Parker

Politics, Weather, Photography, and the Dog

Zip-a-dee doo dah! Now it's off to the races

North Carolina's polls are about to close. So it's now time to open my live blog.

18:30 CST: As the first polls close, we've got Indiana and Kentucky for Trump, Vermont for Clinton. No surprises there. Other states "too close to call."

18:33: First (minor) disappointment: The Times calls Ohio Senate for Portman.

18:37: Interesting. The Times is calling West Virginia for Trump, as expected; but Talking Points Memo calls it for Clinton and Ohio for Strickland. Oh, my, tonight will be a l19ong won.

18:55: Times reporting Strickland has conceded in Ohio. So far, no change in the Senate.

19:04: Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, Massachusetts to Clinton. Tiny states with lots of electoral votes. Times has the race now at 44 Clinton, 31 Trump. Illinois still not called, though our polls just closed.

19:15: Times calling Florida Senate for Rubio, but painting the state blue on the Presidential side. It's looking like there's a lot of vote-splitting today.

19:25: First Senate pick-up: Crain's and other outlets calling Illinois U.S. Senate for Duckworth.

19:44: Times is calling Indiana U.S. Senate for incumbent Republican Todd Young.

20:02: Everybody calls Illinois for Clinton, and the entire 96th meridian for Trump. Also New York and Rhode Island for Clinton. Times has us at 68-69 (because they haven't officially called some of them), MSNBC has us at 104-107.

20:12: Let's recall 2012:

Meanwhile, TPM reports "We don't know how this will play out. But the big story right now in Florida is that Trump is really outperforming Romney in the Republican counties." But remember, urban counties take a lot longer to report. Either way, it's going to be a long night.

20:17: Crain's reports that the (stupid, stupid, stupid) Safe Roads Amendment will probably pass in Illinois. It puts highway money in a lockbox instead of allowing the legislature to spend it on anything else. I don't think this is a good idea. We'll see.

20:25: Times editorial board member Brent Staples reports that 7 in 10 Trump voters long for the world portrayed in 1950s television shows. Unfortunately, this America never existed.

20:37: It may be too early to say this definitively, but I think Gary Johnson voters in swing states are probably closet Trump voters who want to have a bullshit excuse. Or they're crashingly stupid. But I expect, tomorrow morning, a lot of people will be saying, "Well don't blame me, I voted my conscience for Gary Johnson." Uh huh.

20:49: And now, market futures are in a tumble as Trump looks closer to winning.

20:56: TPM and the Times are both talking about polling failures. Bad failures. The Times now shows Trump with a 59% chance of winning. Maggie Halberman: "If Clinton wins, it will be an eked-out victory, meaning that Trump will remain on the scene for potentially a long time. ... But I think it’s going to be hard to grasp how fractured this country is going to be."

21:27: The Times is calling North Carolina U.S. Senate for incumbent Republican Richard Burr. So far we're 1 up. Great. This is scary.

21:56: The Times calls Ohio for Trump, a GOP pick-up. The Detroit Free Press calls Michigan for Clinton.

22:33: Florida to Trump, according to the Times. Gary Johnson got about twice the number of votes than the difference between Trump and Clinton. But my Johnson-supporting friends claim that they voted their consciences, that they opposed Trump, and that third parties are viable in the U.S. Yeah, good work guys. You're either lying, stupid, or delusional.

23:41: Yeah, I'm still up. And California and Massachusetts have just legalized pot. Which is great, but it's still against Federal law, and without an Obama or Clinton administration to stay enforcement of those laws, does it matter?

23:43: Ah, nostalgia. Remember 2012?

23:49: I just realized, it's coming up on 7am in most of Europe now. Bonjour, mes amis! Look who we're giving the nuclear codes to!

00:12: Paul Krugman: "It really does now look like President Trump, and markets are plunging. When might we expect them to recover? ... [A] first-pass answer is never."

00:36: Republican incumbent Pat Toomey re-elected in Pennsylvania. Missouri and Louisiana look grim. So it's looking a lot like we've lost the whole game. This is my country.

01:28: We've lost the Senate. We've failed to take the House. And though a lot of ballots remain to be counted, it looks like we've lost the executive as well. As I posted on Facebook a while ago, it looks like the Republican policies of cutting education funding for 50 years have paid dividends.

I find it no small irony that everyone I voted for this morning won, at all levels. (I include the Democratic electors who will vote for Hillary Clinton in mid-December.) And this is a very, very close election, decided by exactly the people who are already a minority in this country and who are fading away. Clearly they're not going without a fight, even if it destroys everything else around them.

We are Rome. Still the Republic, but Rome nonetheless. Millions of people who voted for Donald Trump tonight will expect their lives to improve, with America returning to the imagined past of "Leave It to Beaver." What happens when they're disappointed? Which Visigoths do they invite to sack Washington?

I'm going to sleep. When I wake up, I wonder if I'll still know my country.

When I'll be reaching for Tums...or Champagne

Here are the states I'm watching closely tonight, and the times their polls close. The biggest ones are all around 7pm Chicago time, just over 4½ hours from now.

18:30 CST/19:30 EST

North Carolina, 15 votes, Republican Senate seat: Hillary Clinton* is polling dead-even, and so is Democratic Senate candidate Deborah Ross. It's not a make-or-break state for the presidency but it would be a huge pick-up in the Senate if Ross beats incumbent Republican Richard Burr.

19:00 CST/20:00 EST

Illinois, 22 votes, Republican Senate seat: My home state is all but certainly going for Clinton, and has a very good chance of giving us a Senate pick-up if Democrat Tammy Duckworth* beats incumbent Republican Mark Kirk. Expect the networks to call our results right when polls close.

New Hampshire, 4 votes, Republican Senate seat: This tiny New England state may signal how other older, whiter states will go later in the evening. And it's not nearly as blue in recent forecasts as it was in 2012 or 2008. I'm also looking for Democrat Maggie Hassan to take the Senate seat from Republican Kelly Ayotte. They're polling dead-even in a must-win race for Democrats.

Pennsylvania, 20 votes, Republican Senate seat: Right now it's "leans Clinton" in optimistic forecasts, "toss-up" in some others, with Democrat Katie McGinty* barely edging out incumbent Republican Pat Toomey.

Florida, 29 votes, Republican Senate seat: Another state where Clinton and Trump are polling dead even, I don't expect this race to get called until late tonight. But in the Senate, it looks like incumbent Republican Mark Rubio will defeat challenger Pat Murphy after all.

Missouri, 10 votes, Republican Senate seat: Trump's going to win the state; I accept that. But Democratic Senate challenger Jason Kander has pulled ahead of incumbent Republican Roy Blunt in late polling. That would be a very satisfying pick-up.

19:00 MST/20:00 CST/21:00 EST

Michigan, 16 votes: Clinton is barely edging Trump right now in late polling. This one could go into extra innings. (No Senate race.)

Wisconsin, 10 votes, Republican Senate seat: Both Clinton and Democratic former Senator (and current Senate challenger) Russ Feingold* are polling ahead, but it's still way closer than I want. This one could also go late.

Colorado, 9 votes: Incumbent Democratic Senator Michael Bennet is comfortably ahead of Republican challenger Darryl Glenn in the polls, so I'm not worried about that. I am interested to see how the toss-up resolves itself in the presidential race.

19:00 PST/21:00 CST

Nevada, 6 votes, open Senate seat (currently Democratic): Who will succeed retiring Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid? Democrat Catherine Masto is polling just a smidge ahead of Republican Joe Heck. This is an important Democratic hold. It would be a shame if New York's Chuck Shumer becomes Majority Leader just as the previous leader's seat changes to the other party.

20:00 PST/22:00 CST

California, 53 votes, open Senate seat (currently Democratic): Since both candidates running for Senate in California are Democrats, I am confident that we'll hold Barbara Boxer's seat. And Clinton is polling so far ahead in the Golden State that, again, I don't anticipate anything dramatic happening. But it's always nice, in any presidential election, to see my candidate's numbers go up by 53 at 10pm. If Clinton already has 199 votes in called states by this point, the triple whammy of California, Oregon (7 votes), and Washington (12 votes) means it's all over.

Will we know who'll be the next president by 10pm? I hope so. But I'm prepared to wait up all night to find out.

* Disclosure: I have contributed financially to these candidates.

How's the weather where you are?

The Weather Channel has the forecasts for battleground states in one convenient location:

Today is Election Day, and you may be wondering, not only what conditions will be like as you head out to the polls, but also whether the weather may factor in the battle for control of Senate, not to mention the presidency.

A 2012 poll commissioned by The Weather Company found weather can have a game-changing effect on turnout in a close election, with party affiliation and demographics key factors.

Possibly Wet

  • Michigan: Some rain showers will move through the state from west to east along a cold front during the day, but widespread heavy downpours are not anticipated. Highs will range from the 40s in upper Michigan to the 50s in lower Michigan.
  • Ohio: Light rain showers will increase during the day, particularly in western and northern Ohio. It will be much warmer-than-average with afternoon readings in the 60s for most.

But most of the U.S. is precipitation-free today, and many places, including Chicago, have near-record warm temperatures.

So what does it mean? It means we may have the largest voter turnout in U.S. history, which will help the Democratic Party and Hillary Clinton more than the other guys.

It's gonna be a long day...

Welp, I voted, and now I'm getting in to the office only an hour late. Nothing left to do but wait until 7pm Chicago time when the first big batch of polls close, including ours in Illinois.