At this writing, The Economist's readers prefer Obama 8,146 to 3.

No, that's not a typo, it really is a ratio of 2700:1.

I should point out, The Economist is a conservative newspaper.

Of course, as McCain's supporters would be quick to point out, their readership is almost exclusively highly-educated, well-read, and wealthy, not the sorts of people you'd want to hunt moose with. Good thing they're not running the world or anything.

Let's review.

President Clinton, the "tax-and-spend" Democrat, left office with a $122 billion surplus.

President Bush, the "conservative" Republican, is on track to leave office with a $10,000 billion debt. I say $10,000 billion because "$10 trillion" seems smaller than "$10,000,000,000,000" but is in fact the same number.

Or put another way: Clinton, +$122,000,000,000; Bush, (-$10,000,000,000,000).

More personally: Clinton left every American with $428.07 in Government surplus; Bush will leave each of us $33,000 in debt[1].

Polls open in five weeks (and a few hours).

If you have a few extra bucks, you may want to donate to your party's congressional or senatorial committees, particularly if you're annoyed with today's vote. You can also harrangue your neighbors: check out FundRace to see who's giving what to whom.

I remember, back in the halcyon days of last week, when a certain (very) senior Senator from Arizona swooped in to save the bailout plan. Well, today, with 60% of Democrats voting for it and 67% of Republicans voting against it, I'd say he did everything he could.

But 778 points? Ouch. Good work, Johnny Boy.

In a moment of historic import in the Capitol and on Wall Street, the House of Representatives voted on Monday to reject a $700 billion rescue of the financial industry. The vote came in stunning defiance of President Bush and Congressional leaders of both parties, who said the bailout was needed to prevent a widespread financial collapse.

The vote against the measure was 228 to 205, with 133 Republicans joining 95 Democrats in opposition. The bill was backed by 140 Democrats and 65 Republicans.

Then Krugman: We are a banana republic with nukes:

So what we now have is non-functional government in the face of a major crisis, because Congress includes a quorum of crazies and nobody trusts the White House an inch.

Interesting times. Kind of like 1931.

Update (via James Fallows): The Obama-Biden campaign released a statement:

This is a moment of national crisis, and today’s inaction in Congress as well as the angry and hyper-partisan statement released by the McCain campaign are exactly why the American people are disgusted with Washington. Now is the time for Democrats and Republicans to join together and act in a way that prevents an economic catastrophe. Every American should be outraged that an era of greed and irresponsibility on Wall Street and Washington has led us to this point, but now that we are here, the stability of our entire economy depends on us taking immediate action to ease this crisis.

The Cubs lost to Milwaukee today, giving Milwaukee the wild-card and the Cubs home-field advantage on Wednesday against the Dodgers. I'll miss a good hunk of the second game, as it's against the Vice-Presidential debate Thursday (unless they schedule a day game). I sincerely hope that the Dodgers play no better than they did all season (4 games above .500 at this writing; their final game is in progress), but of course the Cubs winning the division series at home on Tuesday wouldn't be too awful.

I won't be live-blogging the debate; but Josh Marshall is.

Economist Paul Krugman today chastises just about everyone involved in the bailout meltdown this week:

[T]he grown-up thing is to do something to rescue the financial system. The big question is, are there any grown-ups around — and will they be able to take charge?

...

[T]here do seem to be some adults in Congress, ready to do something to help us get through this crisis. But the adults are not yet in charge.

On a related note, I commend to everyone Frederick Allen's Only Yesterday, published in 1932. It's a quick read, and if you lived through the last 10 years, it will seem eerily familiar. (Someone at UVA has put the entire book online, as it may now be in the public domain.)

If John McCain doesn't have the courage to debate Barack Obama, how's he going to stand up to Putin? Or José Zapatero, for that matter?

I don't read Maureen Dowd much any more, but yesterday she gave her column to Aaron Sorkin. Not bad:

BARTLET: Well ... let me think. ...We went to war against the wrong country, Osama bin Laden just celebrated his seventh anniversary of not being caught either dead or alive, my family’s less safe than it was eight years ago, we’ve lost trillions of dollars, millions of jobs, thousands of lives and we lost an entire city due to bad weather. So, you know ... I’m a little angry.

OBAMA: What would you do?

BARTLET: GET ANGRIER!

Good advice, too.

Happy autumn, y'all.

That is all.

At the first Cubs game I went to the season, the very first pitch wound up on Waveland Avenue. The Brewers won that game 8-2, and we Cubs fans figured that would set the stage for the entire season.

Well, the Brewers lost last night, and the Cubs' magic number fell to 1 (against the Brewers). Except that yesterday, the Cubs played St. Louis, who got a grand slam in the 1st which pretty much set the stage for the game. Final scoreboard:

Let's look at that close-up...

Mark Morford thinks she-who-will-no-longer-be-named-on-this-blog-because-she's-not-running-for-President is per se an insult to women's rights, and I have to agree:

[Thinking women] say: You've got to be kidding me. They say: This is what we get? This could be our historic role model? Two hundred years (OK, more like 2000) of struggle, only to have this nasty caricature of femininity try to hijack and mock and undermine it all?

...

WTF? Could it be true? Are cadres of formerly Obama-leaning white women really so enchanted by [her] gender and motherhood status that they openly ignore the fact that she basically wants to shove women's rights back about five decades? Can it be so simple, crude, sad?

But again, let us all remember, her purpose is to distract voters from the inconvenient fact that McCain is long past his "sell-by" date, and should under no circumstances be allowed anywhere near the nuclear launch codes, just in case he mistakes another NATO leader for Che Guevara.

'Nuff said. That it went to extra innings disturbs me only a little. I'll be at the game against St. Louis tomorrow afternoon, but I won't see them clinch; the earliest that can come is at the end of Milwaukee's game at Cincinnati tomorrow night.

Also, the 2009 schedules are up. The Cubs open in Houston on April 6th. No word yet on when tickets go on sale.

Update: The Trib has the story of today's game.

This evening the Cubs chose (B), against Milwaukee, so the magic number remains 4.

With my days for doing this sort of thing dwindling rapidly, I took advantage of the perfect weather this morning to do a cross-country solo flight: Chicago Executive, Madison, Kenosha, back home. And, of course, I have a Google Earth file, in which you can see that I overshot the turn to final on my last landing, which mars an otherwise good track. It's not apparent from the track, though, that winds aloft were around 30 kts, which accounts for the course corrections on the long legs.

Via Krugman, a good description of how the Bush-McCain economic program resemples the Coolidge-Hoover program that caused the Great Depression:

The real cause [of the Depression] was the collapse of the banking system, which followed the crash in part because Hoover believed strong fundamentals would protect the economy from disaster.

For the likes of Hoover and McCain, asserting the strength of fundamentals is shorthand for saying that business leaders, with maybe a little cheerleading, can sort out the crisis and that Congress should not try to regulate their behavior. It's too soon to know if McCain will be proved right (I doubt it), but Hoover certainly turned out to be wrong.

At the time, Sen. Robert Wagner, a New York Democrat, characterized Hoover's response to the crisis as "the time-worn Republican policy: to do nothing and when the pressure becomes irresistible to do as little as possible." In fairness, Hoover didn't quite "do nothing," but he followed a script that may sound familiar to students of the modern Republican Party.

Why does the name "Santayana" keep popping up in my head? (Third quote from the bottom, perhaps?)

And the magic number drops by two. Though, I gotta say, the top of the 9th was nerve-wracking—but Wood pulled through, finishing the game with a strikeout.

Philadelphia has clinched the NL East, so now it's beween New York and Milwaukee for the wild card, assuming the Cubs don't choke.

Oh, and the Cubs win has eliminated St. Louis.

One of my oldest surviving friends says she's going as Sarah Palin for Hallowe'en. After all, what could be more frightening?

And this one, a one-hitter. Magic number now 6. Milwaukee and St. Louis will be in town this week—I'll be at Friday's game—so the Cubs could, theoretically, clinch by Thursday.

Monkeys could, theoretically, fly out of my butt, too; but the Cubs clinching the division this week is actually more likely.

Krugman elaborates on the events that made me say yesterday was scary:

The new system was supposed to do a better job of spreading and reducing risk. But in the aftermath of the housing bust and the resulting mortgage crisis, it seems apparent that risk wasn’t so much reduced as hidden: all too many investors had no idea how exposed they were.

And as the unknown unknowns have turned into known unknowns, the system has been experiencing postmodern bank runs. These don’t look like the old-fashioned version: with few exceptions, we’re not talking about mobs of distraught depositors pounding on closed bank doors. Instead, we’re talking about frantic phone calls and mouse clicks, as financial players pull credit lines and try to unwind counterparty risk. But the economic effects — a freezing up of credit, a downward spiral in asset values — are the same as those of the great bank runs of the 1930s.

More details as events warrant.

AIG is about to die; Lehmann won't survive the night; and now, Bank of America has agreed to buy Merrill Lynch. Today has been one of the most frightening days on Wall Street since...well, you know:

Coming just a week after the government took control of mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the magnitude of the industry’s reshaping is staggering: two of the most powerful firms on Wall Street, Merrill Lynch and Lehman, will disappear.

The weekend's once unthinkable outcome came after a series of emergency meetings at the Federal Reserve building in downtown Manhattan in which the fate of Lehman hung in the balance. In the meeting Federal Reserve officials and the leaders of major financial institutions were trying to complete a plan to rescue the stricken investment bank.

...

Merrill's chief executive, John A. Thain, and Kenneth D. Lewis, Bank of America’s chief executive, initiated talks on Saturday, prompted by the reality that a Lehman bankruptcy would ripple through Wall Street and further cripple Merrill Lynch, people briefed on the negotiations said.

And who may we thank for the seven-year free-for-all that has brought our financial system to its knees? Who was in power? The Greedy Old Party, perhaps? Hmmm....

Milwaukee lost the first game of their double header against Philadelphia this afternoon, so the Cubs' magic number is now 9.

Update, 21:00 CDT: The Brewers just lost 6-1. The Cubs' magic number falls to 8, with 16 games yet to play.

Later update, 21:15 CDT: The Cubs are right now schooling the Astros 5-0 in the top of the 9th at Miller Park. So despite the rain, today is turning out pretty well for the Cubs.

Final update, 21:30 CDT: Thanks to a 7-inning no hitter by Carlos Zambrano—the first Cubs no-hitter since 1972—the Cubs beat Houston 5-0, lowering their magic number to 7.

Via Calculated Risk, Lehman bankruptcy expected before midnight tonight, after Bank of America pulls out of its rescue:

Bank of America Corp. abandoned talks to buy Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., according to a person with knowledge of the matter, less than three hours after Barclays Plc said it wouldn't buy the faltering investment bank.

...

The U.S. government is racing to find a solution for Lehman before markets open tomorrow, two people familiar with the situation said. Barclays walked away because it couldn't get guarantees from the government or agree on a private-sector deal to mitigate what it called Lehman's "open-ended" trading obligations.

...

Banks and brokers today held a session for netting derivatives transactions with Lehman, or canceling trades that offset each other, in case the New York-based firm files for bankruptcy before midnight New York time.

Who said mortgage-backed securities weren't safe?

Update, 18:00 CDT: Yep.

Yesterday Chicago broke its all-time one-day rainfall record of 165 mm (set 14 August 1987) with 168 mm recorded at O'Hare, and the rain is still falling:

Stuff that makes you say "huh:"

The Cubs and Houston will play two of their postponed games at 7:05 p.m. Sunday and 1:05 p.m. Monday at Miller Park in Milwaukee, Major League Baseball announced late Saturday night.

The third postponed game will be played only if it affects the postseason situation, and not until the day after the end of the regular season. Brewers officials said they encourage fans heading to the games in Milwaukee to purchase tickets online and use the print at home feature to expedite the game experience.

...

Until Saturday afternoon, Houston Astros owner Drayton McLane had refused steadfastly to concede that rescheduling games in a hurricane-ravaged area was unfeasible, insisting the Astros deserved to keep their home-field advantage. The Cubs, meanwhile, continued to push for a switch to a neutral site, with Miller Park—aka "Wrigley North"—being their first choice.

Um...with the Brewers within spitting distance of the NLC pennant, I hardly consider Miller Park "neutral territory." But it is a good compromise. And, if I get my act together, I might go after all (once I figure out the Astros' rain-check policy).

Update: I may actually go to Milwaukee on Monday...

We've had some problems from rain in Chicago today, and we're anticipating getting the remains of Ike tomorrow evening:

The Cubs' magic number remains 11 (with 15 games left), only because the Brewers were also rained out tonight.

I hope Ike doesn't hit Houston too hard tonight, and I think I'm joining all of Houston—Astros fans or not—wishing the storm had gone somewhere else.

Not the most fun day of my life—let's skip why—but arriving home and checking the blogs, I let out a guffaw at Calculated Risk's post this morning. Sadly, though, it means I'm a big nerd.

Sarah Palin is the prestige in McCain's campaign. I mean that literally: her job is to distract us from McCain's utter, complete, and frightening unsuitability for the presidency with her utter, complete, and even more frightening unsuitability for any national office whatsoever. I worried that the strategy was working for a while, but I think things might be changing.

That said, someone thinking we should go to war with Russia for any reason short of, I don't know, the imminent destruction of Western Europe, might need to re-examine her foreign policies (or get one in the first place). As Josh Marshall put it: "Palin...[drew] out the logical inference of McCain & Co.'s unhinged policy vis a vis Russia—not a huge surprise if you've just learned the policy in the last week. But McCain and those in his entourage at least have the seasoning to know not to traipse into throwaway hypotheticals about 'war' with the only other country in the world with a vast and eminently deliverable nuclear arsenal."

Fifty three days until the election...

American Airlines called me and said they're not flying to Houston this weekend, and would I like a refund? (This sort of thing is why I love American.) So, no Cubs game after all. I just hope Houston is still there when I continue the 30-Park Geas next season:

Update, 22:00 CDT: MLB.com has the story, including the back-story, about the league cancelling Friday's and Saturday's games.

The Chicago Public Schools are now bribing children to get higher grades:

Up to 5,000 freshmen at 20 Chicago public high schools will get cash for good—and even average—grades as part of a new, Harvard-designed test program that city education leaders are rolling out Thursday.

Students will be measured every five weeks in math, English, social sciences, science and physical education. An A nets $50, a B equals $35 and a C still brings in $20. Students will get half the money upfront, with the remainder paid upon graduation. A straight-A student could earn up to $4,000 by the end of his or her sophomore year.

...

"It's a terrible idea, because you're getting people to do things for the wrong reasons," said Barry Schwartz, a Swarthmore College psychology professor who has written on the issue. "They'll do well in school, maybe, but they won't take any of it out with them. Instead of trying to cultivate an interest in learning, curiosity . . . you are just turning this into another job."

It may not be obvious, but bribery is force—coersion—robbing the behavior of any intrinsic value. Not to mention, any metric can be gamed, and with money on the line, the opportunities for corruption increase by orders of magnitude. Arguing points on a test will now have a financial stake, which changes the stakes of arguing points on a test dramatically. Once coersion exists in the system, it will be applied in both directions. Teachers and students have a naturally adversarial relationship already; this will make it much, much worse.

This is, in short, the stupidest idea I've ever encountered in public education. Our city will get exactly what it pays for with this program. It's just a pity the CPS doesn't get what that means.

The NHC hasn't wavered much on Ike's projected path: Houston is now officially under a hurricane watch.

Even American Airlines thinks I'm not going to a Cubs game this weekend. But as my cousin said, "They can't lose if they can't play."

Canada's Conservative government has called a snap election:

Prolonged speculation over whether Canada’s minority Conservative government would call an early election has ended with Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s announcement that voters will go to the polls on October 14th. This is a full year ahead of the date Mr Harper proposed in legislation submitted after he assumed power in January.

...

This will be the third national election for Canada in just over four years, and highlights the difficulty recent governments have had in garnering majority support at the polls. Both the major parties had for months appeared wary of pushing for an early election until they had strong enough backing to win a majority. Until recently the Conservatives enjoyed a slim lead in opinion polls, allowing them to force the Liberals to back down in parliament. Some recent polls show both parties holding nearly equal popular support. The Tories have been damaged by a series of scandals that have tarnished their public image; the latest of these, a campaign-financing scandal, is currently being examined by a parliamentary committee. This has benefited the Liberals....

To some extent, I'm envious of the Canadian system. Last week no one knew they'd have an election this year, and before our third Presidential debate (and three weeks ahead of our own election), they'll either have an entirely new government or the Tories will have a mandate for five more years.

Do you think their campaign will be about patriotism, pigs, or POWs? No? Neither do I.

TPM Media gives you: the McCain-Palin Lipstick Pig:

(I mean, someone had to, right?)

Every so often, one must wipe and reinstall his main computer. This is not fun. Even Parker finds it boring, and he sleeps all day.

Still, my main box (a Dell D620) now runs so much faster it's making me cry. So, several hours of boring work will save me several dozen hours waiting for the damn computer.

I have tickets to see the Cubs play Houston this Saturday—in Houston. This graphic just released from the National Hurricane Center suggests that even though Minute Maid Park has a roof, the game might still be rained out:

(For those of you without a handy map of Texas, Houston is just about where the "2" is in the phrase "2 PM Sat.")

At the moment, Ike is expected to make landfall just around the time my plane is supposed to land, just about where my plane is supposed to land, as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane with 95 kt winds.

Crap. I'll be watching this only slightly less than I'll be watching Friday's weather, if only because my life depends on Friday's weather and not on Saturday's.

Update: At least I would get a refund on my airfare if the hurricane hits.

This morning I flew solo for the first time in two and a half years. I really missed it.

I last flew solo on 24 May 2006, from Nashua, N.H., to Nantucket, Mass.—208 km each way. Today I had a more modest mission: Wheeling to Waukegan, Ill., 34 km and less than 10 minutes' flying time.

Some rain moved into the area so I only got four landings in, as you can see from the Google Earth file. (Remember: all takeoffs are optional; all landings are mandatory.) Still, I have to hand it to Chris Johnson, my CFI at Windy City Flyers: all four landings were among the best I've ever made, right on the numbers and so smooth I didn't know I'd touched down until the plane stopped rolling.

Friday, I plan to fly to Janesville, Wis., for a family event. I'm looking forward to spending a couple of hours in a plane again, just flying.

A day in the life of many corporations, via Dilbert:

The North Siders just dropped their 6th in a row, losing 10-2 against Cincinnati, a team who have already been eliminated this year. With a magic number of 18 and (now) 22 games left, it's the Cubs' season to lose—and they're doing it. Sigh.

I can't help chuckling at a minor bit of low-level incompetence from McCain's speech last night. It's not even his fault, though I'm sure someone on the campaign staff might get an early winter vacation. Apparently, the building projected behind McCain during his speech was not, as he might have wished, Walter Reed Army Medical Center in Washington, but Walter Reed Middle School in—no small irony—North Hollywood, Calif. And now the school has issued a statement (via TPM; emphasis in original):

It has been brought to the school's attention that a picture of the front of our school, Walter Reed Middle School, was used as a backdrop at the Republican National Convention. Permission to use the front of our school for the Republican National Convention was not given by our school nor is the use of our school's picture an endorsement of any political party or view.

(The working hypothesis is that a staffer Googled "Walter Reed" and punted.)

Via reader JV, a report of a "wine-and-cheese spattering melée" at the Ravinia Festival:

After setting up their blankets, chairs and a tarp, a group of concertgoers from Arlington Heights left for a restaurant. Returning an hour later, they found their belongings displaced by a Chicago group, which they confronted.

A woman in the Chicago group tried to attack a woman from the returning group, police said. A 40-year-old Chicago man then punched a 49-year-old Arlington Heights man....

(If you're not from Chicago, imagine a mud-wrestling match at Wimbledon and you'll see the humor.)

Good piece in the Chicago Tribune this morning analyzing the speech GOP Vice-Presidential nominee Sarah Palin gave last night:

Some examples:

PALIN: "I have protected the taxpayers by vetoing wasteful spending ... and championed reform to end the abuses of earmark spending by Congress. I told the Congress 'thanks but no thanks' for that Bridge to Nowhere."

THE FACTS: As mayor of Wasilla, Palin hired a lobbyist and traveled to Washington annually to support earmarks for the town totaling $27 million. In her two years as governor, Alaska has requested nearly $750 million in special federal spending, by far the largest per-capita request in the nation. While Palin notes she rejected plans to build a $398 million bridge from Ketchikan to an island with 50 residents and an airport, that opposition came only after the plan was ridiculed nationally as a "bridge to nowhere."

Sad day! I just realized Monday was Parker Day, the anniversary of when I adopted him. All he got was a heartworm pill. No wonder he's looking at me ruefully this morning.

In baseball, the "magic number" is the number of your team's wins and the next-best team's losses that clinch the division title. Despite the Cubs' 5-game losing streak this past week, (mitigated by the Brewers' three losses in the same period), the Cubs' magic number today stands at 19, with 23 games left. So 19 Cubs wins or 19 Brewers losses, or any combination thereof, means the Cubs go to the National League Division Series.

Still, one might have preferred the Cubs not drop five straight in September...

Come to think of it, perhaps the McCain campaign picked the wrong Palin. Perhaps they meant Michael?

Via Talking Points Memo, the McCain campaign has trouble explaining Gov. Palin's foreign-policy experience. Even CNN is fed up: Alaska bordering Russia, and Palin having "command" of the Alaska National Guard, are neither "foreign-policy experience" nor a combination of things we'd ever want to see taken to a logical conclusion. But here's the interview:

After Palin goes the way of Harriet Miers, perhaps "Fast Draw" McCain might vet the next candidate?