The Daily Parker

Here are the states I'm watching closely tonight, and the times their polls close. The biggest ones are all around 7pm Chicago time, just over 4½ hours from now.

18:30 CST/19:30 EST

North Carolina, 15 votes, Republican Senate seat: Hillary Clinton* is polling dead-even, and so is Democratic Senate candidate Deborah Ross. It's not a make-or-break state for the presidency but it would be a huge pick-up in the Senate if Ross beats incumbent Republican Richard Burr.

19:00 CST/20:00 EST

Illinois, 22 votes, Republican Senate seat: My home state is all but certainly going for Clinton, and has a very good chance of giving us a Senate pick-up if Democrat Tammy Duckworth* beats incumbent Republican Mark Kirk. Expect the networks to call our results right when polls close.

New Hampshire, 4 votes, Republican Senate seat: This tiny New England state may signal how other older, whiter states will go later in the evening. And it's not nearly as blue in recent forecasts as it was in 2012 or 2008. I'm also looking for Democrat Maggie Hassan to take the Senate seat from Republican Kelly Ayotte. They're polling dead-even in a must-win race for Democrats.

Pennsylvania, 20 votes, Republican Senate seat: Right now it's "leans Clinton" in optimistic forecasts, "toss-up" in some others, with Democrat Katie McGinty* barely edging out incumbent Republican Pat Toomey.

Florida, 29 votes, Republican Senate seat: Another state where Clinton and Trump are polling dead even, I don't expect this race to get called until late tonight. But in the Senate, it looks like incumbent Republican Mark Rubio will defeat challenger Pat Murphy after all.

Missouri, 10 votes, Republican Senate seat: Trump's going to win the state; I accept that. But Democratic Senate challenger Jason Kander has pulled ahead of incumbent Republican Roy Blunt in late polling. That would be a very satisfying pick-up.

19:00 MST/20:00 CST/21:00 EST

Michigan, 16 votes: Clinton is barely edging Trump right now in late polling. This one could go into extra innings. (No Senate race.)

Wisconsin, 10 votes, Republican Senate seat: Both Clinton and Democratic former Senator (and current Senate challenger) Russ Feingold* are polling ahead, but it's still way closer than I want. This one could also go late.

Colorado, 9 votes: Incumbent Democratic Senator Michael Bennet is comfortably ahead of Republican challenger Darryl Glenn in the polls, so I'm not worried about that. I am interested to see how the toss-up resolves itself in the presidential race.

19:00 PST/21:00 CST

Nevada, 6 votes, open Senate seat (currently Democratic): Who will succeed retiring Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid? Democrat Catherine Masto is polling just a smidge ahead of Republican Joe Heck. This is an important Democratic hold. It would be a shame if New York's Chuck Shumer becomes Majority Leader just as the previous leader's seat changes to the other party.

20:00 PST/22:00 CST

California, 53 votes, open Senate seat (currently Democratic): Since both candidates running for Senate in California are Democrats, I am confident that we'll hold Barbara Boxer's seat. And Clinton is polling so far ahead in the Golden State that, again, I don't anticipate anything dramatic happening. But it's always nice, in any presidential election, to see my candidate's numbers go up by 53 at 10pm. If Clinton already has 199 votes in called states by this point, the triple whammy of California, Oregon (7 votes), and Washington (12 votes) means it's all over.

Will we know who'll be the next president by 10pm? I hope so. But I'm prepared to wait up all night to find out.

* Disclosure: I have contributed financially to these candidates.

The Weather Channel has the forecasts for battleground states in one convenient location:

Today is Election Day, and you may be wondering, not only what conditions will be like as you head out to the polls, but also whether the weather may factor in the battle for control of Senate, not to mention the presidency.

A 2012 poll commissioned by The Weather Company found weather can have a game-changing effect on turnout in a close election, with party affiliation and demographics key factors.

Possibly Wet

• Michigan: Some rain showers will move through the state from west to east along a cold front during the day, but widespread heavy downpours are not anticipated. Highs will range from the 40s in upper Michigan to the 50s in lower Michigan.
• Ohio: Light rain showers will increase during the day, particularly in western and northern Ohio. It will be much warmer-than-average with afternoon readings in the 60s for most.

But most of the U.S. is precipitation-free today, and many places, including Chicago, have near-record warm temperatures.

So what does it mean? It means we may have the largest voter turnout in U.S. history, which will help the Democratic Party and Hillary Clinton more than the other guys.

Welp, I voted, and now I'm getting in to the office only an hour late. Nothing left to do but wait until 7pm Chicago time when the first big batch of polls close, including ours in Illinois.

Before discussing the most important sports story in North America since...well, since the States were United, let me highlight some of the political and professional stories percolating:

• The Economist has endorsed Hillary Clinton for President. "This choice is not hard."
• Meanwhile, the High Court in London ruled today that Parliament must actually vote to trigger Brexit, which gives MPs another crack at the piñata and perhaps a way out. No telling when Teresa May plans to schedule this vote as the UK Supreme Court still has to hear the case. In any event, the government now can't trigger Article 50 for the indefinite future.
• TPM's electoral scoreboard now stands at Clinton 269, Trump 221, with New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Florida now toss-ups. Nate Silver points out that his estimates have Clinton at about the same point Obama was in 2012, giving Clinton 293 to Trump's 244. Deeply Trivial explains more about Silver's statistics.
• Meanwhile, if it seems like the FBI is in full-on Clinton-hating mode, it's because they are. The Guardian's Spencer Ackerman reports that the bureau is "Trumplandia" and totally off the rails. Great. TPM (where Ackerman worked previously) analyzes the journalism making the FBI's political interference worse.
• University of Chicago law professor Geoffrey Stone is appalled by elected Republicans threatening a scorched-earth rear-guard assault against Clinton's policies. Brian Beutler agrees it could be a long two years until the 2018 mid-terms in which absolutely nothing gets done.

Stay tuned for the real story of the day.

The Cubs' World Series Game 7 tonight in Cleveland may be "the biggest game in Chicago sports history," according to Blackhawks coach Joel Quenneville. I agree.

But still, I'm trying to maintain perspective:

• This is the only the second time in franchise history they've played in November. Last night was the first.
• They won the National League pennant after a 71-year drought. That's not trivial.
• If Cleveland wins, maybe they'll be so happy there it will tip Ohio into Hillary Clinton's column.
• They have played some amazing baseball during this series, and during this season.
• They'll be back next year.

So let's see what happens. And go, Cubs, go!

In between meetings and client visits, I've been paging through New York Magazine's article from last week, "The Final Days of the Trump Campaign:"

Perhaps the most surprising thing to ponder at this late stage in the election is just how close the race could have been had he taken nearly any of the advice offered to him by advisers. “This thing was doable if we did it the right way,” one adviser told me.

When Paul Manafort, a veteran Republican lobbyist and operative cut from Establishment cloth — he’d worked on Gerald Ford’s, George H.W. Bush’s, and Bob Dole’s presidential campaigns — came onboard to serve as campaign chairman at the beginning of the general-election season, he suggested a strategy that was the exact opposite of the one Trump pursued in the primaries. He wanted Trump to lower his profile, which would force the media to focus on ­Clinton — a flawed opponent with historic unfavorable ratings who couldn’t erase the stain of scandal, real or invented. “The best thing we can do is to have you move into a cave for the next four months,” Manafort told Trump during a meeting. “If you’re not on the campaign trail, the focus is on her, and we win. Whoever the focus is on will lose.”

But Trump is Trump, after all, and his entire campaign is based on him being better than "so-called 'experts.'" Kind of like the Brexit folks. I just hope Clinton's actual experts know how to beat this dangerous charlatan.

Let me see if I understand. Eleven days before an election, FBI Director James Comey sends a letter to Congress that has no specific information about an issue that was deemed closed in July but with the implication that the presidential candidate in the other party may have committed some malfeasance, even though doing so is against his agency's own policies? How can he be trusted to run a police force now?

The FBI language in the letter to Congress made it clear that new evidence had been discovered and thus will be reviewed — meaning FBI agents will read these emails. It is unusual for the FBI to tell Congress it is looking over newly discovered evidence in a criminal inquiry that was otherwise closed.

Federal practice is not to comment on ongoing investigations, or discuss details of concluded investigations. Comey previously explained his departure from that practice in his earlier congressional testimony, given the special nature of this case and congressional oversight inquiries.

Great. The FBI will read some new emails. What about the 22 million emails George W. Bush and his gang sent through the RNC's email servers that have up and vanished? Can he find those too?

Still busy. So busy.

• Some intrepid Tribune reporters went to every bar in Wrigleyville so you don't have to.
• Meanwhile, Crain's went to a bunch of breweries and wineries in Southwestern Michigan so you can also.
• Do you want to hear Trump's self-immolation at last night's Alfred E Smith dinner?
• Better yet, just go back and re-watch last night's Cubs game. They're one away from their first pennant since 1945. This could happen...

And now I have to set up a development environment.

Recaps of the debate comprise just a few of the things I haven't had time to read today:

• Who hated Trump's caginess on whether he'd accept the election results if he lost? Everyone: The Economist, The New Republic, The National Review, Talking Points Memo, everyone. 
• Trump's debate performance is being compared to book reports by kids who haven't read the book.
• Pilot Patrick Smith says Trump's airline wasn't that bad for customers, but it never made a profit either.
• Meanwhile, the Cubs beat the Dogders 10-2, which means the series will be decided at Wrigley on Saturday or Sunday.
• Looks like Chicago will have a warm-ish November and a normal-ish winter.
• One of the world's largest data centers, here in the South Loop area of Chicago, will soon be a lot bigger.
• Funny statistic: almost all airport noise complaints come from a handful of people—like the one person in Maryland who complained about Washington Dulles 1,024 times last year.
• Finally, "Hamilton," which I saw Sunday, got a rave from the Tribune.

Back to my meetings.

Sigh. Here we go again.

21:14 EDT: Fifteen minutes on the 2nd Amendment, argued by someone who has never read the thing. And now, abortion, which apparently will be overturned "automatically" if he appoints pro-life judges.

21:19: No, Donald, you can't rip the baby out of the womb in the 9th month. I mean, FFS.

21:22: It took fully 15 minutes for him to descend into a stream-of-consciousness. That's pretty good self-control. (Did he just say "bad hombres?")

21:24: This, from my cousin.

21:26: No score after 4. Arguably more useful for the typical Chicagoan than this debate.

21:29: You know, in any other election, it would be really weird for a major candidate to say that the Russians have committed espionage against her campaign.

21:32: This is a long way from Lincoln-Douglas, isn't it?

21:36: "You're not going to find a quote from me." Oh, dearie dearie dear.

21:40: She's going to double my taxes? I'm absolutely certain that is mathematically impossible for me, but if she doubled your taxes it would still be...what, zero?

21:49: "Excuse me. My turn."

21:54: So...he's projecting the incitement to violence that he has perpetrated, onto her?

21:55: Apparently some people have objected to the Ewoks comment at 21:24. This only proves the Ewok Line.

22:01: Trump is calling the Clinton Foundation a "criminal enterprise." Half of all people being treated for HIV-AIDS in the world are getting it from the Foundation. Criminally, I suppose.

22:04: "There's no way to know if he's telling the truth" because he hasn't released his tax returns. "Undocumented immigrants in America are paying more in income tax than a billionaire."

22:06: "Will you absolutely accept the results of this election?" "I will look at it at the time."

22:16: "Google 'Donald Trump Iraq.'"

22:21: Trump keeps referring to "the Great Migration." Is he suggesting Clinton is responsible for African-Americans moving from the rural southern U.S. to northern cities?

22:25: Oh, FFS, Matthews. The national debt isn't in itself an issue. Why is this so hard for people? Read Krugman on IS = LM.

22:30: And the last question of this debate cycle is a right-wing hobby horse. Yes, there is bias in the media, and it's pro-Republican.

22:32: "Such a nasty woman." Projection much?

22:34: Final answer of the 2016 debates. Not a moment too soon.

22:37: That is the last time I will ever voluntarily listen to Donald Trump speak in my life. I know he'll be in the news for the next few weeks, but damn, I can't even.